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Philipps-Universität Marburg
Abstract
In 2001 began a rise in the prices of food commodities not seen since the
1970s. Some observers attribute the increase in part to food commodity spec-
ulation. This hypothesis is examined by disentangling the impact of specu-
lation on grain prices from that of fundamental supply and demand forces.
Even though results point to a generally stabilising in uence of speculation on prices, speculation is shown to have pushed prices further up during crisis years. The analysis is based on a structural vector autoregressive model identified by sign and zero restrictions. The model is estimated for global corn,
wheat and rice markets.
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This item has been published with the following license: In Copyright